{"id":455,"date":"2024-01-29T21:52:31","date_gmt":"2024-01-29T21:52:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanaflighttraining.us\/?p=455"},"modified":"2024-01-29T21:56:29","modified_gmt":"2024-01-29T21:56:29","slug":"training-aircraft-market-forcast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanaflighttraining.us\/index.php\/2024\/01\/29\/training-aircraft-market-forcast\/","title":{"rendered":"Training Aircraft Market Forcast"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"455\" class=\"elementor elementor-455\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-1c6ae7d0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"1c6ae7d0\" data-element_type=\"section\" 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class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Training Aircraft Market Forcast <\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-7339ae03 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7339ae03\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-52ecce02\" data-id=\"52ecce02\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bd048c0 elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-widget-mobile__width-auto elementor-view-default elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon\" data-id=\"bd048c0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon\">\n\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-far-calendar-alt\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M148 288h-40c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h40c6.6 0 12 5.4 12 12v40c0 6.6-5.4 12-12 12zm108-12v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm96 0v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm-96 96v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm-96 0v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm192 0v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm96-260v352c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V112c0-26.5 21.5-48 48-48h48V12c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h40c6.6 0 12 5.4 12 12v52h128V12c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h40c6.6 0 12 5.4 12 12v52h48c26.5 0 48 21.5 48 48zm-48 346V160H48v298c0 3.3 2.7 6 6 6h340c3.3 0 6-2.7 6-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-62989782 elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-widget-mobile__width-auto elementor-widget elementor-widget-jkit_post_date\" data-id=\"62989782\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"jkit_post_date.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<div  class=\"jeg-elementor-kit jkit-post-date jeg_module___69e0d1a810bdf\" ><p class=\"post-date \">January 29, 2024<\/p><\/div>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7e2778c3 elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-widget-mobile__width-auto elementor-view-default elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon\" data-id=\"7e2778c3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon\">\n\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-far-folder-open\" viewBox=\"0 0 576 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M527.9 224H480v-48c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48H272l-64-64H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v288c0 26.5 21.5 48 48 48h400c16.5 0 31.9-8.5 40.7-22.6l79.9-128c20-31.9-3-73.4-40.7-73.4zM48 118c0-3.3 2.7-6 6-6h134.1l64 64H426c3.3 0 6 2.7 6 6v42H152c-16.8 0-32.4 8.8-41.1 23.2L48 351.4zm400 282H72l77.2-128H528z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6a3dddc elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-widget-mobile__width-auto elementor-widget elementor-widget-jkit_post_terms\" data-id=\"6a3dddc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"jkit_post_terms.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<div  class=\"jeg-elementor-kit jkit-post-terms jeg_module__1_69e0d1a811f2b\" ><span class=\"post-terms\"><span class=\"term-list \">Blog<\/span><\/span><\/div>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7b1862f4 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7b1862f4\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-43725f9c elementor-invisible\" data-id=\"43725f9c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInUp&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2b518f14 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2b518f14\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.19.0 - 07-02-2024 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p>I have been asked to provide my professional opinion about the future market for Vulcanair aircraft in the U.S.\u00a0 I\u2019m happy to provide you with the following.\u00a0 As the fight training market is by far the largest market for piston-engine aircraft we will focus on this market.<\/p><p><strong>Scope of market:<\/strong><\/p><p>More than two years ago I started work on a forecast for the requirement for FAA certified four-seat single-engine training aircraft.\u00a0 I started the project by reviewing the semi-annual Boeing 20 Year Commercial Aircraft Forecast.\u00a0 In the last, published in 2018 there is a forecast of the need for almost 800,000 professional pilots in the next 20 years.\u00a0 As you know there is an overwhelming current demand for professional pilots in all niches in aviation.<\/p><p>I then expanded the forecast to include my own research on the number of flight hours in aircraft that will be required to train that number of pilots.\u00a0 The number is almost 200,000,000 hours in the 20-year period.\u00a0 It\u2019s likely that this number will be higher because of the additional time required for flight training of recreational and owner-flown business aircraft pilots but that number is harder to forecast.<\/p><p>The number also needs to be trimmed slightly because some of the training will be for multi-engine ratings.\u00a0 That said, the number of multi-engine training is usually about 10-12 hours per commercial pilot student or 9,000,000 hours over the next 20 years.\u00a0 The Vulcanair P68 can have a place in this market.<\/p><p><strong>Need for single-engine aircraft:<\/strong><\/p><p>The last decade that large numbers of training aircraft were produced was the 1970\u2019s.\u00a0 There were about 15,000 appropriate airframes made in that decade.\u00a0 In the 1980\u2019s there were only a few thousand manufactured, about 3,000.\u00a0 The whole industry stopped manufacturing training aircraft in 1984.\u00a0 The reason was because of the liability laws at the time and the long tail of responsibility for the aircraft manufactures.\u00a0 The law changed in 1996 to limit the number of years the manufactures had a liability and the industry started manufacturing the aircraft again.\u00a0 Since that time, almost 25 years, only a few thousand more have been manufactured, about 5,000.\u00a0 Last year the industry, made up of Vulcanair (V1.0), Cessna (172), Piper (PA-28), Diamond (DA-40), Cirrus (SR-20) and Tecnam (P2010), manufactured approximately only 335 airframes.<\/p><p>I believe it is realistic to estimate that there are about 10,000 appropriate airframes currently in the world that are being used reliably in the training market.\u00a0 Probably half of those are over 40 years old many of which have 5-10,000 hours on the aircraft already and are becoming no longer reliable for use in the training market due to high maintenance costs.\u00a0 So, the industry needs to average almost 10,000,000 training hours per year divided between 10,000 aircraft.<\/p><p>If there are 10,000 aircraft that are being used for flight training, then the average aircraft is adding about 1,000 hours per year.\u00a0 That means this fleet of 10,000 aircraft in the future need to be replaced every 10 years or there is a need for 1,000 new aircraft per year.\u00a0 Also remember that most of the 10,000 current aircraft have thousands of hours already.\u00a0 Therefore, you can see there is a need for several thousand aircraft right now.\u00a0 Bottom line, there is a need to fill the void between the 335 airframes per year that are currently being manufactured and the 1,000+ airframes currently needed each year.<\/p><p><strong>Summary:<\/strong><\/p><p>There is a known huge market for new pilots.\u00a0 It will require a significant number of new aircraft to train these pilots.\u00a0 The supply of 2000 or newer trainers is small, probably less than 5,000 aircraft and many of those that have been used in the training market already have more than 5,000 hours.\u00a0 The 1970 to 2000 aircraft will need to be retired in the next 10 years as most will have airframe times that will be exceeding 10,000 hours.\u00a0 Another thing that will lead to the retirement of these 1970 to early 2000 airframes is the fact they have an older generation of avionics that are rapidly becoming obsolete to the professional pilot training market.<\/p><p>The U.S. training aircraft market will be owned by the company that produces a reliable but reasonably priced aircraft with very good customer service and a good financing program and a well thought out resale market.\u00a0 Ameravia and Vulcanair can be that company!<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e2602a7 elementor-align-center elementor-widget 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.elementor-divider__text{direction:rtl}.e-con-inner>.elementor-widget-divider,.e-con>.elementor-widget-divider{width:var(--container-widget-width,100%);--flex-grow:var(--container-widget-flex-grow)}<\/style>\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-44dc5697 elementor-widget elementor-widget-jkit_post_comment\" data-id=\"44dc5697\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"jkit_post_comment.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<div  class=\"jeg-elementor-kit jkit-post-comment jeg_module__3_69e0d1a81d847\" ><\/div>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Training Aircraft Market Forcast January 29, 2024 Blog I have been asked to provide my professional opinion about the future market for Vulcanair aircraft in the U.S.\u00a0 I\u2019m happy to provide you with the following.\u00a0 As the fight training market is by far the largest market for piston-engine aircraft we will focus on this market. 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